股市估值水平的最佳单一指标:股市总市值与GNP的比率

“股神”巴菲特有一大盘估值利器,他认为,任何时候衡量股市估值水平的最佳单一指标,很可能就是股市总市值与国民生产总值(GNP)的比率,因为总市值增长速度与国民经济增长速度应该基本一致。

Market Cap to GDP is a long-term valuation indicator that has become popular in recent years, thanks to Warren Buffett. Back in 2001 he remarked in a Fortune Magazine interview that “it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.”

美股市场

The denominator in the charts below now includes the Second Estimate of Q4 GDP, which was unchanged from the Advanced Estimate. The latest numerator value is Q4 2016 data from the Fed’s “Corporate Equities; Liability”. The current reading is 125.2%, up from 123.1% the previous quarter. It is off its 129.7% interim high in Q1 of 2015.

 

中国:当前 2017年1季度 53万亿/80万亿 = 66%

2015年6月10日奔溃前的最高点 70万亿/69万亿 = 101%

2015年5月10日较高点 55万亿/69万亿 = 80%

2015年3月10日不太高点  41万亿/69万亿 = 59%

2012,2013,2014年低点 24万亿/60万亿 = 40%

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