YC创业课笔记2: Stupid Apps and Changing the World

Fri, 17 Apr 2015 14:41:24 GMT

Facebook, Twitter, reddit, the Internet itself, the iPhone, and on and on and on—most people dismissed these things as incremental or trivial when they first came out.

People often accuse people in Silicon Valley of working on things that don’t matter. I have a thought about why. There’s the famous observation that the value of a network grows as a function of the square of the number of nodes, and also many of these services/products double their userbase every N months, with N decreasing as the service gets more valuable.

So the value/importance of the service grows hyperexponentially. I’ve never met anyone in my life that has a good intuition for hyperexponential growth—most of us even struggle to comprehend exponential growth.

FB和Twitter这些东西刚开始出来的时候都显得微不足道。他们是逐渐成长起来的。

有个著名的理论说,一个网络的价值随着它的节点数平方而增长,并且他们的用户数每N个月即翻一倍。所以网络的价值呈“超几何倍数”增长。

我从未见过真正理解“超几何倍数”增长的人。大多数人对几何倍数增长都难以真正理解。

There is all sorts of emergent behavior as something grows in importance a millionfold in a short period of time. If some users really love what you’re building, engage with the service or product as an important part of their daily lives, and interesting new behaviors keep emerging as you grow, keep working on it.

那种会迅速百万倍爆发的东西,会表现出各种各样的迹象。如果用户真的喜欢你做的东西,在生活中用你的服务或者产品,表现出各种有趣的行为,那么努力干吧。

As an aside, pay no attention to market predictions—some of the worst predictions in the history of business (a market for 5 computers, a market for 900,000 cell phones) have been the most costly.

In closing, I have two pieces of advice for the “arrogant fucks” who make the world go round. One, don’t claim you’re changing the world until you’ve changed it. Two, ignore the haters and work on whatever you find interesting. The internet commenters and journalists that say you’re working on something that doesn’t matter are probably not building anything at all themselves.

别相信所谓的市场预测。看看一些过往的预测吧:世界上会有5台电脑,90万台手机。

别到处喊说要改变世界,先做到了再说。忽略那些个评论家,专注于你的事情。