The $30 trillion decathlon – Mckinsey

Wed, 04 Jun 2014 17:23:54 GMT

the number of people earning more than $10 a day, by 2025 that number will nearly double again, to 4.2 billion consumers

到2025年,在新兴市场里赚10美刀一天的人将会翻倍,达到42亿

by 2025 annual consumption in emerging markets will rise to $30 trillion and
account for nearly 50 percent of the world’s total. Even under the most pessimistic scenarios for global growth, emerging markets are likely to outperform developed economies significantly for decades.

大约10年之后,新兴市场将占据全世界50%的消费总量。即使做最悲观的考虑,未来几十年内新兴市场的表现也将远远超过发达国家。

Leading the way is a generation of consumers in their 20s and early 30s who are confident their incomes will rise and are willing to spend in order to realize their high aspirations.

最具代表性的是一群20多岁和30多岁的年轻人,他们确信未来会有更可观的收入,也愿意花钱来实现美好生活的理想

Companies failing to pursue these consumers will squander opportunities to build positions of strength that, history suggests, could be long lasting: in 17
major product categories in the United States, the market leader in 1925 remained the number-one or number-two player for the rest of the century.

错失新兴市场的客户将会导致跨国公司失去立足未来的机会。美国的历史经验是:1925年17个主流产品类别里头最流行的品牌,在20世纪后面的70多年里一直占据数一数二的位置。

The scale of the modern exodus from farms to urban areas has no precedent. Over the next 15 years, just 440 emerging-market cities will generate nearly half of global GDP growth.

这样大规模的从农村到城市的人口迁移是历史上前所未有的。在未来的15年内新兴市场中的440个城市会产生50%以上的全球GDP。

Midsize cities frequently offer the best opportunities. The notion that smaller cities can offer bigger opportunities isn’t new. Many multinationals nonetheless assume that developing local strategies for “middleweight” cities can come only at the expense of economies of scale.

中等大小的城市往往能提供最好的市场机会。“小一点的城市反而能提供更大大机会”,这不是什么新概念。不过很多跨国公司相信,如果要对中等城市采取本地化的策略,那么就得以损失规模经济为代价(因经营规模扩大而得到的经济节约)。

Demand for a particular product or category of products typically follows an S-curve: there is a “warm-up zone” as growth gathers steam and consumer incomes rise, a “hot zone” where consumers have enough money to buy a product, and a “chill-out zone” in which demand eases.

市场上某一种或某一类产品的销量常常会服从一条S型曲线:缓慢“热身”期(产品逐渐打开市场,消费者收入逐渐升高),“热门”期(消费者有钱买这产品了),“冷却”期(产品需求下降)。

Purchases of products with low unit costs, such as snacks and bottled drinks, accelerate at a relatively early stage of the income curve, beauty products somewhat later, and luxury products later still. Refrigerators tend to have a steep adoption curve that flattens out as the market reaches saturation, while spending on clothing displays a more sustained growth pattern.

单价低的产品,像罐装饮料的量,在消费者收入增长曲线的初始阶段就会加速。美容产品会稍微滞后,奢侈品又更滞后一些。冰箱通常会经历一个骤然上升的市场保有量,然后在市场饱和后趋平。而对于衣服来说,通常会有一个长时间的增长。

Adoption patterns of products within the same general category can vary widely, too. For example, in Beijing, purchases of refrigerators start to take off at annual incomes of $2,500 a year but slow above $6,000, while the acceleration for washing machines doesn’t begin until incomes approach $10,000.

对于同一个类别的不同产品,他们在市场上的销量曲线也可能有很大差别。比如说,在北京,冰箱的销量在人均年收入达到2500美元的时候开始增长,到6000美元年收入时趋缓,而洗衣机的销量一直到1万美元年收入时才还是增长。

In China, rising incomes, greater awareness of the benefits of baby formula, and concerns about the safety of low-end brands have helped make baby food the fastest-growing product category in the supermarket sector. Between 2000 and 2010, annual sales of baby formula in China soared from RMB 6 billion to RMB 36 billion, despite the number of births remaining stagnant at 16 million a year.

在中国,随着收入的增加,人们对配方婴儿食品以及食品安全的重视程度也增加。人们对低端品牌的担忧导致国际品牌卖得很好。事实上,过去这些年婴儿食品是超市里增长最快的品类。在2000年到2010年,婴儿配方食品在中国的销量从60亿元猛增到360亿元,虽然新生婴儿的数量没有变化。

more than half of all Chinese  urban households, for example, will be solidly
middle class by 2020, up from 6 percent in 2010— companies are learning to craft more nuanced product strategies.

举例来说,到2020年,超过50%的中国城市居民将会成为典型的中产阶级,而在2010年这一比例是6%。商业公司在学习如何微调市场策略以适应这种变化。

On average, emerging-market consumers are younger, with 63 percent aged 35 or under in 2010, versus 43 percent in developed countries. And they
are highly receptive to branding efforts but also far more likely than developed-market consumers to dump one brand for the next new thing.

平均来说,新兴市场的消费者较年轻,大约63%在35岁以下(2010年统计),而在发达国家是43%以下。这些消费者对品牌宣传有很好的接受度,但也比起发达市场的消费者更容易转移到新事物上。

McKinsey surveys find that product recommendations from friends or family
are twice as important for consumers in China and nearly three times as important for consumers in Egypt as for those in the United States and Britain. Chinese consumers are more likely to trust online recommendations than TV
advertisements.

麦肯锡发现,在中国,朋友和亲人对产品的推荐比起在美国和英国来说重要2倍。比起电视广告,中国消费者更容易相信互联网上的评论

In China, 45 percent of consumers make purchasing decisions inside shops, compared with 24 percent in the United States.

在中国,45%的消费者在店里做出购买的决定,而在美国这一数字是24%

In China, online sales in many product categories are growing explosively. One of China’s largest retailers, Suning, said it aims to boost online sales to 45 percent of total revenue by 2020, up from 7 percent today.

在中国,很多品类的网上销售都有爆发似增长。中国的最大零售商之一苏宁电器预计将要把线上销售的比例从现在的7%提高到2020年的45%。

During the next 100 years, the companies looked to as the world’s greatest will surely be those that win in emerging markets.

在接下来的100年里,世界上最伟大的公司将是那些赢得新兴市场的公司

1

2

3